As an avid movie watcher and enjoyer of award show pageantries, I was ecstatic to pack myself into a dozen or so movie theaters for what I thought would be the easiest article of my life. It was grueling. I took everything from the Academy’s historical patterns, to public consensus, and award season performance into account. 13 movies and 30 hours later, here is every movie, actor, and director that should and that will win at the 2025 Academy Awards.

Best Picture

Anora (WILL WIN, SHOULD WIN)

Sean Baker’s Anora is the best movie of the year. The film follows a Brooklyn-born sex worker named Anora, or Ani for short, as she falls in love with and marries the son of a Russian oligarch without telling his parents. A true dramedy, Anora expertly transitions from its rom-com-inspired first act to a hilarious screwball comedy interlude before concluding in a full-blown emotional drama. It’s punchy, snarky, and sly. At the same time, it challenges oligarchical class structures and a revision of the Cinderella stories ingrained in mainstream Americana. 

Unlike most dramedies, it is not deeply satirical––in fact, its humor remains straightforward. It takes its time developing both comedic gags and the heartbreaks and emotions of its leading lady. 

Aesthetically, Anora feels like a combination of Pretty Woman, The French Connection, and Uncut Gems with a color palette centered around a neon New York City and red, white, and blue symbolism. It calls back to Hollywood’s New Wave films and uses its loud visuals and distinct characters to ask one of the era’s major questions: how does the American dream apply to the outlaws of urban nightlife? 

Anora’s answer is in its examination of power structures, showing the perspectives of people with and without power, and how the powerless work to remain dignified. 

Ani is written like fine china: profound, vivid, and detailed, but heartbreakingly small once broken. Mikey Madison is stunning in what might be this year’s most complicated role, and she is aided by stellar performances from the soulful Yura Burisov and incredibly weird Mark Eydelshteyn. 

Anora should be a shoo-in for Best Picture. The issue: the aging Academy might not pick a movie featuring sex work in such a huge category—it usually relegates them to Original Screenplay wins. They haven’t since 1969’s Midnight Cowboy, but with a slew of wins this award season generating momentum, Anora might just be the film to break that streak. 

Conclave 

Hallelujah, Conclave is sharp. With a star-studded cast, quick direction, and witty dialogue, Edward Berger’s depiction of a fictional papal conclave is smart. Watching Ralph Fiennes, Stanley Tucci, John Lithgow, and Isabella Rossellini on the same screen is like watching the U.S. Olympic Team or a Tom Brady-led offense: it oozes excitement and its success feels inevitable. 

Conclave also thrives aesthetically—the set is a to-scale replica of the Sistine Chapel. The screenplay is fast-paced, endlessly interesting, and generally straightforward, keeping audiences on the edge of their seats the entire time. 

For the majority of the movie, Conclave avoids gimmicks, but the ending twist reads like something out of a five-dollar book you’d buy at the airport. The conclusion is a muddy and out of place. The ending exists for pure shock factor, choosing tacky storytelling over any substance. Even so, Conclave’s greatest achievement is simplifying an incredibly complicated process into a palatable story. Although, its unassuming nature just might be what the Academy punishes it for. 

Emilia Pérez 

Emilia Pérez might be the greatest Oscar villain ever. This French movie—shot in France with a French writer and director, an Italian crew, and a Spanish lead—about Mexican cartel disappearances and transgender issues has garnered 13 nominations (and a stellar Mexican parody video). The movie simplifies serious problems and ignores the real people facing these issues. 

With no character held to any standard of humility or realism, Emilia Pérez is a glorified telenovela. If you take it that way, it’s half-decent. But when Hollywood lifts it up as the savior of modern cinema, there’s a problem. As one might guess, this movie is not popular in Mexico, or really anywhere outside a couple of film festivals and award shows. 

Zoe Saldaña tries her very best to keep this thing watchable, but Karla Sofía Gascón is a painfully boring lead and Selena Gomez is way out of her league. Oh, and did I mention it’s a musical? The songs—written entirely in Spanish by French songwriters and (probably) Google Translate—don’t rhyme and lack both choruses and melodies. 

Worse, instead of leaning into its absurdity, it takes itself incredibly seriously. The slightly imperialist sentiment of “we should go help those poor, struggling brown people down in Mexico” is the movie’s only real theme. In short, Emilia Pérez is lazy. And The Academy rewards this movie in spite of its significant shortcomings because it claims to discuss important issues when in reality its stances are superficial and boring. 

The Brutalist 

At almost four hours, The Brutalist is massive. The fictional story of Holocaust survivor and architect László Tóth’s immigration to America has some chilling moments. The performances are solid, the sets and locations are beautiful, and the core storyline more or less works. 

These positives are mostly overshadowed by blatant mistakes. Its issues stem from writer and director Brady Corbet, who is so eager to make himself seem like a distinct creative that he chooses the single weirdest way to approach every scene. His misplaced zooms, random slow-motion scenes, and awkward blocking make the movie feel more strained and vacant than artistic. In the hope of maintaining its epic status, the story is stretched thin, leaving room for disappointingly cliché plot points (the only Black character is Laszlo’s best friend/heroin dealer), weird pseudosexual storylines, and a massive oversimplification of the trauma Holocaust survivors endure. 

Even with three-and-a-half hours to build dimension, the film still feels cheap and crude. It claims to be the next great American epic but fails to examine how a specific American idea is reflected in individuals (like There Will Be Blood with greed) or present a vivid picture of American experiences during a cultural turning point (like Robert Altman’s Nashville). Instead, it wants to be a “great American novel” of film, The Catcher in the Rye of cinema. It screams at you with its “life-changing” analysis of America that, when boiled down, is the basic sentiment that the American dream is a lie. When it realizes it might not be as impactful as it hopes, it leans on the Holocaust and the traumas of its main character to feel important.

The Rest 

Wicked, one of this year’s biggest blockbusters, is surprisingly great. It serves as an accurate tribute to the iconic stage musical while using its huge budget and some movie magic to elevate its major moments. Its two leading performances and musical numbers are definitely standouts. However, its lackluster direction and rough award season means it is unlikely to win.

I’m not one for three-hour sci-fi epics, but if that’s your cup of tea, I’m sure Dune: Part Two was life-changing. There’s no denying its scope and beauty, even if the dialogue is at a minimum. 

The Substance’s social criticisms feel like a natural evolution of the time-worn ‘Hollywood hag’ trope, and its great special effects and vivid colors bring it all to life. Still, it will likely struggle because of the Academy’s historical dislike for the horror genre. 

Nickel Boys takes risks and they mostly pay off—it’s fully in first-person point of view. It also takes its time, making it one of this year’s most tender films. But its muted advertising and inaccessible storytelling means it doesn’t stand a chance. 

The Brazilian I’m Still Here is my other favorite of the year. Despite an incredibly limited theater run and almost no anticipation outside of Brazil, it has quickly garnered acclaim, largely due to lead actress Fernanda Torres’ Golden Globe win. The low-budget, emotional drama is the type of movie American studios don’t make anymore. 

A Complete Unknown is this year’s dark horse. Its performances, especially those portraying famous folk superstars, are true standouts that make the movie memorable. It exceeds expectations, proving to be much more than a run-of-the-mill Oscar-bait biopic. It has a half-decent shot at the award, but it winning would be a major surprise due to its somewhat predictable and formulaic plot. 

Leading Actress

Demi Moore, The Substance (WILL WIN)

Demi Moore seems to be this year’s Best Actress favorite for her career-defining performance in The Substance. Propelled by relevant themes and one of 2024’s best scenes, Moore flexes her acting muscles throughout the movie. Her take on the aging diva archetype is a revision of old themes adjusted to the new age of Hollywood stardom. Especially in the film’s front half, Moore stands out. She is serious but satirical, smart but naïve, and calculated but still short-sighted.

For the movie to work, though, it must remove more and more complexity (and screen time) from Moore’s Elizabeth Sparkle and give it to Margaret Qualley’s Sue. Qualley and Moore share a character, so Moore doesn’t get the spotlight (like Torres) or a dramatic third-act moment (like Madison) and instead gets stripped, little by little, of screen time and depth. She regains control of the film’s last scene, but is unrecognizable and swallowed by body horror prosthetics. 

The Substance proves Hollywood has undervalued Demi Moore as an actress, but still won’t let her reign over a film. All the same, she’ll probably win thanks to her strong Hollywood status, even stronger performance, and strongest of all, a renaissance story everyone loves. 

Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (SHOULD WIN)

Walter Salles’ tale about the wife of a former Brazilian congressman who gets ‘disappeared’ during the military dictatorship of the ’70s is nothing without Fernanda Torres. She is in every single scene. The camera revolves around her character, Eunice Paiva, a strong yet silent figure. As her life is destroyed, her family breaks, and her attempts at justice are shown to be futile, Eunice becomes the rock of her ever-needing family. She stands up to the impossible, holds her loved ones close, and commands respect from the system that tries to rob her of her life. Eunice has hardened to the outside world, one designed to diminish her. But she never loses her nurturing touch, always putting her children before her. 

Torres subtly captures the silent fight pouring out of Eunice. She doesn’t speak much, but when she talks, you listen. And when others speak, you watch her listen. Her performance is magnetic—you are inexplicably connected to her the whole time. It is a true tour de force. She sets an example for future actresses: this is how to handle the weight of an entire film on your shoulders. Sadly, the film’s muted American press and the Academy’s aversion to foreign films will likely hurt Torres’ chances at victory.

Mikey Madison, Anora

It’s always fun to see a true star discovered, and Hollywood has found one in Mikey Madison. Spilling spunk and personality, Madison is captivating. In a world of checker-playing performances, Madison is playing chess. She takes time developing layers upon layers of Ani, planting the seeds for their eventual payoffs.

In the first act, Madison establishes Ani as a full-fledged person. She develops her dreams, fears, flaws, and quirks with expertise. In the second act, Ani is thrust into a world she doesn’t understand. She loses her footing, struggles to remain calm, and suffers through a nighttime odyssey. All this sets up Madison’s third-act performance, which might be the most talked-about of the year. 

The last 20 minutes of the film become Madison’s playground: her chance to execute her emotionally complex and well-planned vision of Ani that culminates in the year’s most interesting ending scene. It is only then that you realize Ani is a character you’ll never forget. Madison cements herself as a behemoth to look out for in Hollywood’s next generation. But she is probably too young and unestablished to snatch the coveted Best Actress award. Instead, she might get something even more flattering: dozens of Madison wannabes doing Anora impersonations in the coming years’ indie flicks.

The Rest

To put it frankly, Wicked’s Cynthia Erivo and Emilia Pérez’s Karla Sofía Gascón don’t have a shot. With a voice on par with the planet’s best, Erivo’s Elphaba is strong and at times revolutionary, but Elphaba is (at least in the first Wicked movie) too one-dimensional to earn consideration from the Academy. Gascon is lucky to have even been nominated—her performance as Emilia Pérez feels tacky, and her recently resurfaced Tweets have done away with her already nonexistent chances at an Oscar. 

Leading Actor

Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (WILL WIN)

Adrien Brody is built for the Oscars. Already a Lead Actor winner, Brody returns as a favorite for his performance in The Brutalist. Though I don’t love much about the film, Brody’s performance as László Tóth is definitely impressive. Tóth is surprisingly underwritten for the lead of a four-hour epic, but Brody adds much-needed dimension. Tóth is optimistic, sure of himself, and opinionated, and Brody ensures that potentially cliché moments are forever plastered in your memory. 

He holds a deeply confused film together, acting as a much-needed centering force. Do I especially love Brody’s character or performance? No, but I respect the hell out of it. He seems to have a knack for finding the toughest roles on the market, and he completely transforms Tóth from the basic tortured artist into a layered, interesting man.

Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (SHOULD WIN)

Timothée Chalamet has gotten the DiCaprio treatment. It’s remarkable that he’s gone this long without an Academy Award, but his role as Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown is his best shot yet. Chalamet provides a flawless impersonation, complete with Dylan’s hunched posture, self-centered persona, and horrible singing voice. It’s a well-done personification of a larger-than-life American icon, but the impersonation might just be too good. 

The movie often feels like a who’s who of folk legends (Pete Seeger, Joan Baez, Johnny Cash), vividly portrayed while Bob Dylan sits in the corner, guitar in one hand, cigarette in the other, mumbling indistinguishably. It doesn’t feel like Chalamet is carrying the film, which certainly isn’t a bad thing, but might (unfairly) skew voters from him. Still, Chalamet is justly an Oscar favorite—you can’t ask for a better Bob Dylan. Maybe the times really are a-changin’.

Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

It’s ironic considering Conclave’s subject matter, but Ralph Fiennes’ Oscar chances rest on the Academy’s weird preferential ballot voting system. His performance in Conclave is riveting. Add on his lack of recognition for iconic past roles (Schindler’s List, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Harry Potter), and we’ve got ourselves an upset contender. Fiennes is just a phenomenal actor. His choice to play the Cardinal Camerlengo with the nosiness, pettiness, and moral conflict of a gossiping teenage girl is one of the smartest you’ll see all year. Choosing his performance here would be a solid, albeit safe, choice. With Brody and Chalamet giving much more divisive performances, he could rack up enough second-place votes to get the win. 

The Rest

Sebastian Stan snuck into the category with his chilling performance as a young Donald Trump in The Apprentice. It’s a horrifying performance of a man so commonly imitated that exemplifies the paranoia and sheer egoism Trump has become famous for. In contrast, Colman Domingo gives a generous performance in Sing Sing as inmate Divine G. He is subtle and often gives the spotlight to his stellar cast mates. The issue: The Apprentice and Sing Sing got almost no love in any other categories, and Academy voters probably don’t care enough to propel them forward. 

Supporting Actress

Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (WILL WIN)

Saldaña is the major favorite for Supporting Actress this year, and it’s well-deserved. Emilia Pérez is a mess, but Saldaña tries her best to hold it together. She can’t really sing, and some of her material is simply unsavable, but in general, Saldaña makes something out of nothing with Rita. Her stern disposition and questionable character are mixed with moments of true kindness. In a movie so dedicated to doing the absolute most, Saldaña chooses to be minimalistic, though sometimes she is as dull as a slab of concrete. Sure, she’s boring, but given the rest of the film, it’s just nice to see something well-constructed. There are definitely moments where Saldaña comically overacts, but, overall, she tries to create some sense of reality in a disconnected film and deserves credit for her efforts.

Ariana Grande, Wicked (SHOULD WIN)

Ariana Grande is delightful as Galinda. She is prickly yet empathetic and optimistic to her core, and she can sing like nobody’s business. Galinda might be this year’s toughest supporting role, demanding an incredible range of emotion along with an understanding of satire. But Grande shines. Starting with the film’s opening number, her complex performance is poignant and painful. She understands every comedic nuance on the page and elevates it to rapid-fire humor. She knows when to hit the audience with jokes and when everyone needs a moment to breathe. She leans into the moments that are truly unforgivable and opens up when the character demands empathy. Hopefully Grande will be popular with the Academy.

The Rest

Felicity Jones is okay in The Brutalist. Her character is incredibly one-note, and she’s only in the second half, but, like the movie in general, she has a couple of stellar moments. Isabella Rossellini is a first-time Oscar nominee for her seven-minute, 51-second performance in Conclave. She’s strong throughout and much more grounded than usual, but this is probably more of a lifetime achievement nomination honoring her work in classics like Blue Velvet and Death Becomes Her than anything substantial. Monica Barbaro’s nomination for A Complete Unknown comes as a pleasant surprise. Her work portraying Joan Baez is astounding. She captures a multidimensional woman—someone sweet yet unafraid—but as a relatively new actress with a limited supporting role, I can’t see her coming away victorious. 

Supporting Actor

Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (WILL WIN)

Culkin is the major favorite this year. He plays Benji, who joins his cousin David on a Polish concentration camp tour to honor their recently deceased grandmother. As the titular “real pain,” Benji struggles through the tour, pestering David and the other tour members. But with an empathetic camera and a performance as layered as Culkin’s, it’s easy to understand the severity of the trip. He is souring before our eyes. Contrasted with Jesse Eisenberg’s fast-moving, anxious David, Culkin is slow. He takes his time, revealing layers upon layers of depth, pain, suffering, joy, grief, and relief, creating a beautifully bittersweet performance of a broken man. I’m not sure if I’d even count Culkin as a supporting actor in this film—his emotional conflict is the main internal conflict, and his character seems to get the biggest moments, but he’s in the category and almost a lock to win because of it. 

Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (SHOULD WIN)

Edward Norton’s performance as folk legend Pete Seeger is hypnotic and meditative. The Christlike Seeger is a surprising choice from an aggressive actor like Norton. Seeger is the spirit of traditional folk music personified. Radiating quiet charisma and speaking with the intonations of a preschool teacher, Norton provides the perfect contrast to Chalamet’s rock-and-roll Dylan. In the back half, Norton transforms Seeger’s saintlike nature into that of a cult leader as his folk traditionalism butts heads with Dylan’s genre-bending music. Through all of this, Norton is entirely in his element despite doing something completely new in his career. It’s exciting to watch. The issue is that Norton, when compared to Culkin, has a much smaller range of emotion and less character depth to work with, making it tough to see the Academy picking him.

The Rest

Yura Burisov is the breakout star of this year’s supporting group. The Russian A-lister transitioned into the American mainstream with his empathetic performance as Igor in Anora. Igor is a true thinker, not speaking much until the final minutes of the film, but through glances, Igor’s patient demeanor is the perfect contrast to Anora’s chaos. Guy Pearce’s performance in The Brutalist is peculiar. He is weirdly one-note but screams for attention, which is not a great combination to watch non-stop for three hours. Jeremy Strong’s The Apprentice performance as infamous lawyer and Donald Trump mentor Roy Cohn is stellar, though a hard watch. He is brutal, but by all accounts very accurate. 

Director

Some quick notes on a director’s race I don’t really like. Sean Baker (WILL WIN, SHOULD WIN) is the favorite this year for Anora and the best of the nominees. He’s the most accomplished on the list, the king of the last decade of American underground filmmaking, and should be rewarded for his vivid characters and distinct style. 

The other favorite is The Brutalist’s Brady Corbet, who makes a lot of wild choices, almost all of which I hate. He is too focused on gimmicks and refuses any subtlety in his film. To give credit where it’s due, it’s amazing to make a movie as huge as The Brutalist with only a $10 million budget. With the Academy usually preferring a bold, hands-on approach to directing, he could totally take the award. 

I absolutely hate Jacques Audiard’s direction in Emilia Pérez. It is grotesque, garish, showy, pretentious, and borderline unwatchable. On the other hand, James Mangold is perfectly acceptable. A Complete Unknown isn’t reinventing the wheel, but Mangold does a great job of immersing viewers in the world of ’60s folk. Finally, Coralie Fargeat does some really interesting things with The Substance. Although the Academy’s aversion to horror and the film’s clunky ending gives her almost no shot at victory, her command over shot composition and color theory, and her pitch-perfect references create a unique directorial voice.